农村劳动力老龄化对农业生产的影响研究——基于耕地地形的实证分析

The Influence of Rural Labor Force Aging on Agricultural Production——An empirical analysis of cultivated land terrain

本文首先从理论上识别了农村劳动力老龄化对农业生产的直接影响和间接影响,然后采用全国农村固定观察点微观农户数据,实证检验了不同地形下农村劳动力老龄化对农户种植结构调整与要素投入的影响,并用江苏、浙江两省的市级宏观数据进行了稳健性检验。结果表明,农村劳动力老龄化对农业生产的影响在不同的地形上存在明显差异,具体而言,在平原地区,由于耕地适宜机械耕作,老年农户家庭会增加机械化程度较高的粮食作物的种植比例;而在丘陵山区,由于农业机械难以替代劳动力,老年农户家庭会增加经济效益较高的经济作物的种植比例。与此同时,我们还发现随着农村劳动力老龄化,平原地区和丘陵山区均存在不同程度的机械替代劳动力现象。

In this paper,we identified the direct and indirect effects of rural labor force aging on agricultural production.Then,using the data of rural farmers’ fixed observation points to test the ecological structure of rural laborers under different terrains.Provincial macro data of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are then used to carry out a robustness test.The results showed that the impact of rural labor aging on agricultural production significantly differs by terrain. Specifically,in plain areas,the elderly households will increase the proportion of grain crops which are suitable for machinery while in hilly areas cash crops are more welcomed.The results also found that,with the aging of the rural labor force,significant replacement of labor with agricultural machinery can be found in both types of terrains.