工资增长对机械化和农业生产的影响

Impact of Rising Wage on Mechanization and Agricultural Production

工资增长不仅影响出口导向型行业,而且显著地影响农业的发展。通过对建立的理论模型进行定性分析得出工资增长对棉花等劳动力密集型作物的生产有消极影响,而对粮食作物等劳动力粗放型作物的生产有积极影响;再利用具有全国代表性的分省数据,实证结果证实理论分析结论;最后,实证分析结果还表明工资增长有助于机械化的发展,而机械化又进一步加速了劳动力密集型作物的减少和劳动力粗放型作物的增加。根据本文的研究结果,随着工资水平的增加和机械化的发展,我国的棉花播种面积在三年内将减少六分之一以上,这可能会危及我国棉花产业的生产安全。

As the population bonus disappeared,the wage rate has increased significantly since the early 2000 s in China. Rising wage has significantly affected export-oriented industries as well as the development of agriculture. This paper first establishes a theoretical model,and through qualitative analysis of the model,it is concluded that wage growth has a negative impact on the production of labor-intensive crops such as cotton,and has a positive impact on the production of extensive crops such as food crops. Using nationally representative provincial data,the empirical results confirm the conclusion of the theoretical analysis. In addition,the empirical results also show that rising wage contributes to the development of mechanization,which further accelerates the reduction of labor-intensive crops and the increase of labor-extensive crops. According to this study,as the increase of wage rate and the development of the mechanization,China’s cotton planting area will decrease by more than one sixth in three years,which might threaten China’s cotton industry and production safety.