最低收购价政策能稳定粮食价格波动吗

Did the Minimum Purchase Price Policy Stabilize Grain Price Fluctuation

基于2002—2015年省级面板数据,采用双重差分方法估计了2004年以来实施的粮食最低收购价政策对粮食价格波动的影响。研究结果发现,在分离了供给、需求以及宏观经济因素对粮食价格波动的影响之后,最低收购价政策显著降低了政策执行区省份小麦价格波动率2. 4个百分点,发挥了稳定小麦市场价格的作用。进一步的分析表明,政策的长期效果较短期更为明显。但是,最低收购价政策对稻谷价格波动的稳定作用并不显著。这些结论具有较好的稳健性,对于进一步完善我国粮食最低收购价政策具有参考意义。

Based on the provincial panel data in 2002-2015,the effect of the minimum grain purchase price policy since 2004 on the fluctuation of grain prices were estimated using difference-in-difference method. The results showed that after separating the effects of supply,demand,and macroeconomic factors on grain price fluctuations,the minimum purchase price policy significantly reduced the price fluctuation rate of wheat in the policy enforcement region by 2.4%,and played a role in stabilizing the market price of wheat. Further analysis showed that the long-term effect of the policy was more pronounced than that in the short term. However,the effect of the minimum purchase price policy on rice price fluctuation was not significant. These conclusions have good robustness and have referential significance for further perfecting the policy of minimum purchase price of grain in China.