基于规模变迁视角的家庭两栖化研究——来自新中国成立70年的经验证据

A Study on Family Amphibious from the Perspective of Scale Change——Evidence from the Questionnaire Survey on the 70th Anniversary of the Founding of People’s Republic of China

农村居民在城市和农村均进行居住,导致家庭两栖化现象的发生。本文建立了农村人口向城镇转移的决策模型,基于规模变迁视角,分析农业经营规模和家庭规模变化对家庭两栖化的作用机理,并利用logit模型对其影响效应进行测算。得出如下结论:受家庭养老、风土人情、宅基地变现能力等影响,家庭规模小型化显著加剧家庭两栖化现象。农业规模化经营一方面可以有效提高农业生产效率,促进人口跨产业、跨区域转移,另一方面也增加农村土地等要素的未来预期收益和农民居住意愿,从而进一步强化家庭两栖化现象。在传导效应方面,家庭规模小型化可以显著增加教育投入,提高人力资本水平,促进人口流动,提升家庭两栖化程度;农业规模化经营有助于释放农村劳动力进而显著提高农村家庭非农收入,对家庭两栖化产生显著的正向影响。因此,要不断健全养老服务体系,加大农村养老事业投入,建立完善的宅基地退出机制,推动一二三产业融合发展。

The phenomenon of family amphibious has arisen when rural residents live in both urban and rural areas.This paper establishes a decision-making model of rural population transferring to urban areas,deeply analyses the mechanism of agricultural operation and family size on family amphibious transformation from the perspective of scale change,and uses Logit model to measure its impact.The results showed that,family miniaturization significantly aggravates the phenomenon of family amphibious,which is influenced by family pension,local conditions and human feelings,and the ability to homestead cash-in.On the one hand,agricultural large-scale management can effectively improve the agricultural production efficiency,promote the transfer of population across industries and regions.On the other hand,it also increases the expected future income of rural production factors and farmers’willingness to live,thus further strengthening the phenomenon of family amphibious.In terms of transmission effect,family size miniaturization can significantly increase investment in education,improve the level of human capital and promote population mobility,and enhance the degree of family amphibious.Agricultural large-scale management not only helps to release rural labor force,but also significantly improves the non-agricultural income of local rural households,which has a significant positive influence on family amphibious.Therefore,we should constantly improve the pension service system,increase investment in rural pension undertakings,establish a sound homestead withdrawal mechanism,and promote the integration and development of primary,secondary and tertiary industries.