生计方式变迁、后期扶持政策与政策满意度突变——基于江西省农村水库移民的非线性实证分析

Changes in Livelihood Modes,Late-stage Supporting Policies and Policy Satisfaction Catastrophe——A Nonlinear Empirical Analysis Based on the Rural Reservoir resettlement in Jiangxi Province

后期扶持是农村水库移民特有的安置政策,而在生计方式转型的大背景下,如何对此政策进行适应性调整,是保障该特殊群体可持续发展的关键所在。本文基于江西省29个水利水电工程2618户农村移民的调研数据,探寻了移民后扶政策满意度的突变机制。研究结果如下:在移民生计分化过程中,个体政策满意度在施政效果和政策运行双因素作用下,会发生非线性突变;生计的非农转型既能减少移民对后扶政策的依赖性,又会增加移民对政策效应的敏感性;水利移民的政策满意度波动较大,而水电移民的政策意愿则更为趋同并极易扩散;淡化水库移民的非自愿属性,以及适度的分散安置有助于提升后扶政策满意度;一旦移民表现出政策对立,则需在原有扶持的基础上做出更多让步才能平息争端。

The late-stage supporting is a particular resettlement policy for rural reservoir resettlement.Under the background of the transformation of livelihood strategy,how to adjust the policy adaptability is the key to guarantee the sustainable development of this special group.Based on the survey data of 2618 rural migrants in 29 water conservancy and hydropower projects in Jiangxi Province,this paper explores the mutation mechanism of the satisfaction of the post-migration support policy.The results are as follows:In the process of migrants’livelihood differentiation,the individual policy satisfaction will undergo a nonlinear mutations under the dual factors of governance effect and policy operation;the non-agricultural transformation of livelihood can not only reduce the dependence of migrants on late-stage supporting policies,but also increase the sensitivity of migrants to policy effects;the policy satisfaction of water conservancy fluctuate greatly,while the policy willingness of hydropower migrants tends to be more convergent and easily diffused;desalination of involuntary attributes of reservoir resettlement.,as well as a moderate degree of decentralized resettlement will help to improve the satisfaction of late-stage supporting policies;once migrants are contrast to official policy,more concessions are needed on the basis of the original support to settle disputes.