河南省能源消费与经济增长的实证分析——基于协整分析和脉冲响应函数

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF HENAN PROVINCE——BASED ON COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION

近年来我国正在积极转变经济发展方式,实行节能减排的资源与环境政策。河南省也不例外。但节能减排的环保政策是否会降低河南省经济的发展速度,河南省能源消费与经济增长之间又存在着怎样的关系,这是政府在制定经济发展战略时应该考虑的问题。本文对河南省1993-2013年的能源消费和经济增长相关的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,河南省能源消费和经济增长之间不仅存在着长期的协整关系,而且存在着短期的误差修正机制。能源消费是经济发展的单向格兰杰原因,表明河南省经济发展是依靠能源推进型的增长方式,政府推行节能环保政策可能降低经济的增长速度。

In recent years,China is changing the way of economic development,and implements the policy of energy saving and environmental protecting policies. The local provinces are also implementing the national policy,but whether the policy will reduce the economic development speed of Henan Province,so the relationship of energy consumption and economic growth should be considered in the process of making the economic policy. Based on the data of energy consumption and economic growth of Henan province from1993-2013,this paper analyzed the relationship between them. The results show that there is not only a long-term cointegration relationship,but also a short-term error correction mechanism between them. Energy consumption is a one way Granger causality of economic development,which shows that the economic development of Henan province is a mode of energy consumption. The government implement the policy of energy saving and environmental protection may reduce the speed of economic development.