2017/18年度山东省小麦市场形势分析与后市展望

Wheat Market Situation in Shandong Province in 2017/18 and Its Prospects for the Future

山东省是中国重要的小麦主产省,也是中国最大的优质小麦主产省,其小麦生产对中国小麦产业发展至关重要。利用时间序列统计方法,研究分析了山东历年小麦产量、面积、单产变化情况以及2017/18年度山东省小麦生产和市场运行特点。政策是影响小麦种植面积的主要因素,单产是小麦产量增加的主要原因。2018年山东小麦面积、单产和总产量减少,小麦市场呈现出新小麦价格低开高走、市场收购主体积极性高涨、农户惜售、收购的小麦质量好于预期、收购工作进展顺利等特点。基于后期小麦市场价格走势分析,预计短期内山东省小麦需求基本保持不变,在产量略减的前提下,价格或将出现一定程度的波动,后期质量高的小麦价格将稳中有涨,但空间有限。针对当前山东省小麦市场供需面临的问题,提出了未来发展思路。

Shandong is an important major wheat production province in China, and it is also the largest good-quality wheat production province. So the wheat production of Shandong province has key significance to the wheat industry in China. The statistical approach of time series was adopted to analyze the variation of total yield, planting area, yield per unit area of wheat and in Shandong province over the years, as well as the production and market operation characteristics of wheat in Shandong province in 2017/18. The policy was the main factor influencing the planting area of wheat in Shandong province. The yield per unit area was the main cause which led to the increase of total wheat yield. The planting area, yield per unit area and total yield of wheat all decreased in Shandong province in 2018. The wheat market situation showed some characteristics such as the wheat price being lower first and then in a higher development, the market acquirer showing higher enthusiasm in acquisition, the peasant households being reluctant to sell out their wheat products, the quality of purchased wheat being better than that of expectation, the acquisition going well and so on. From the analysis of market price development of wheat in later period, it was predicted that the wheat demand in Shandong province would remain unchanged basically in the short term;at the premise of yield reducing slightly, the wheat price would fluctuate in a certain extent;the price of good-quality wheat would rise in the overall stability in later period, but the space of rising would be limited. The future development ideas were put forward based on the existing problems in the supply and demand of wheat market in Shandong province.