基于Markov的工程承包风险因素分析

Analysis on Reasons of Engineering Contract Risk Based on Markov

在总结以往风险分析理论的基础上 ,通过对工程承包风险因素的辨识、估计 ,将Markov链应用于工程承包风险领域 ,对各个风险因素影响工程承包成败的大小及主要影响阶段进行评价 ,建立了工程承包风险因素评价模型。承包商可根据评价模型的分析结果 ,更有效地利用有限的资源 ,对承包项目中的各风险因素进行控制 ,节约人力、时间 ,达到承包企业提高经济效益 。

Based on the summarization of the past risk analysis theory and identification and estimation of the factors for engineering contract risk the Markov chains is used in the risk of engineering contract with evaluation of effect of various risk factors on the engineering contract, scale and main stages so as to establish an evaluation model for the risk factors of engineering risks. The contractors can analyze the results according to the model to more effectively use the limited resources and control the risk factors in the contracted projects to increase the capability of the market competition. [