不确定数据条件下的生命周期评价及其应用

Life Cycle Assessment under Data Uncertainty and Its Application

针对产品生命周期评价中普遍存在着的不确定性数据问题 ,提出基于概率统计的方法 ,进行生命周期评价以及重要环境影响清单参数的识别与灵敏度分析。结合水源中央空调系统 ,建立了统计平均意义下的污染排放清单 ,运用 Monte Carlo模拟获得了以均值 2 19.74 6和方差 9.4 2 4 3所表征的空调机系统生命周期环境影响的概率分布。进一步通过 K- S检验与灵敏度分析 ,识别出 10个具有重要环境影响贡献的清单参数及其中 4个对环境影响分布较敏感的参数。以概率分布代替固定数值可以反映产品环境绩效的统计信息 。

In this paper,a probability based method was developed for life cycle assessment(LCA) under data uncertainty,which included the establishment of the probability distributions for life cycle inventory parameters and aggregated potential environmental impacts,the identification of the key parameters with significant environmental impacts,and the sensitivity analysis to the key paremeters.As a case,the proposed method was applied to a LCA for water source heat pump system(WSHPS).A set of the statistical means of life cycle inventory parameters were estimated,and then,a probability distribution for the aggregated potential environmental impacts,which characterized by the mean of 219.746 and deviation of 9.4243,were established by using Monte Carlo simulation.Furthermore,based on the determined probability distributions,10 key parameters with the significant environmental impacts were identified according to the K S test and 4 sensitive parameters also determined in terms of a global form of the sensitivity analysis to the key parameters.The probability based method can be effective to characterize the data uncertainty in LCA study.More statistical information can be revealed by substituting probability distributions for fired value in LCA results.