外债的期限结构与货币危机

The Maturity of Foreign Debts and Currency Crises

本文提出一个简单的理论模型来解释新兴货币危机国在危机前存在大量短期外债的原因 ,认为政府对私人投资的担保导致了短期外债大量流入新兴市场国家。文章Probit模型对 90年代发生过货币危机的发展中国家在危机阶段的资本逆流与短期外债之间的关系进行了经验分析 ,找到了在危机阶段资本逆流与短期外债比例显著相关的证据。

This paper presents a simple theoretic model that account for the abundance of short-term foreign debt in emerging market countries afflicted by currency crises, and argues that the over-inflows of short-term foreign debt in emerging markets result from governments' guarantee on private investment. In addition, Probit Model is used in the empirical analysis of developing countries' currency crises in 1990s, and it is showed that the capital inflows in the countries of high short-term foreign debt ratio are inclined to reverse.