人民币可自由兑换进程的最优安排

Superior Arrangement for the Process of Renminbi's Free Exchange

我国加入世贸组织之后,人民币资本项目可兑换已成为一个亟待考虑的重要课题,并有望在未来5年内取得实质性进展。为了降低人民币自由兑换的风险及负面影响,实现其最大收益,人民币自由兑换应基本具备以下五个前提条件,即稳定的宏观经济基础、国内金融体系的深化、微观经济金融主体的塑造、合理的国际收支结构和高效的金融监管。同时在尽快开放、逐步放宽、偏严掌握和严格控制四类开放战略指导下,把握人民币自由兑换的速度和顺序的适当安排,以寻求这一进程的最佳路径。其中,宏观经济环境塑造、利率市场化改革、汇率机制的形成和金融监管方式的改变,是人民币自由兑换进程中必须首先解决的重点问题和成败关键。

The free exchange of Renminbi capital has become an important problem and is hoped to make essential progress in five years after China's accession into WTO. Five prequisities should be satisfied in order to reduce the risk and negative impact of Reminbi's free exchange and optimize the benefit,which include the stable macro economic basis,deepening of domestic financial system,establishment of financial subject in micro-economy,rational structure of international receipt and expenditure,efficient financial supervision.The pace and sequence should be arranged to optimize the process under the open strategies.The key of the success lies in the establishment of macro-economy environment,reform of the interest rate market,formation of foreign exchange mechanism and the change of financial supervision.