转型经济中农户储蓄行为:中国农村的实证研究

Saving Behavior in a Transition Economy:An Empirical Case Study of Rural China

本文运用大样本农户家庭调查资料 ,对决定中国农户家庭储蓄行为的影响因素进行了探索 ,从实际出发构建了一个具有较好解释力 ,且能对各种类型的变量均有所考虑的储蓄模型。研究发现 :(a)流动性约束、预防性储蓄动机以及工业化等对储蓄率的上升贡献相当大 ,且为正值 ;(b)在解释区域间储蓄率的差异时 ,文化是一个相当重要的因素 ;(c)家庭生命周期的“∪”型分布假说被拒绝 ,相反的“∩”型分布被发现 ;(d)当家庭财富与储蓄率的相关关系表现为负时 ,持久收入假说也被拒绝。

Using a large set of household—level survey data, this paper explores determinants of saving behaviour in rural China. The rich specification of the model, necessarily ad hoc, enables consideration of an extensive array of variables. It is found that (a) liquidity constraints, precautionary motives and industrialisation contribute positively to the unusually high saving rate in China; (b) culture is a significant factor in helping explain inter-regional differences in saving rate; (c) the life cycle hypothesis is rejected since a “U-pattern”, contrary to the commonly claimed “hump”, is discovered; and (d) the permanent income hypothesis is not accepted as wealth is found to be negatively related to savings.