财政风险:一个分析框架

Framework on China's Fiscal Risk

政府既是一个经济主体 ,也是一个公共主体 ,本文从公共主体身份出发 ,构建了一个财政风险的理论分析框架 ,区别于政府以经济主体身份承担的财政风险。财政风险是私人风险转化为公共风险时的产物。财政风险的大小与制度变迁的速度有关。评估财政风险应从两个方面入手 :一是政府拥有的公共资源 ,二是政府应承担的公共支出责任和义务 ,就债务论债务是没有意义的。我国的财政风险处于发散的状态 ,呈不断扩大的趋势 ,原因在于制度缺陷导致的“风险大锅饭” ,破坏了收益与风险对称的基本规则 ,从而形成了一种风险累积和集中的机制。今后改革的重心在于建立不同层面的风险约束机制。

In this paper, the author presents a fiscal-risk framework based on the conception that the government is a public entity instead of an economic entity. In the opinion of the author, fiscal risk emerges when private risk develops into public risk, and it is relevant to institutional evolvement. Two aspects will be discussed when evaluating fiscal risk. The first is about public resources owned by the government, and the second is about its responsibility and obligation on public expenditure as it is meaningless to only concern the public debt. The author also points out that fiscal risk in China spreads widely due to institutional flaws where the basic rule for the symmetry of return and risk has already been destroyed and various risks are thus generated and centralized. Finally, the author argues that the emphases of reform in the near future are to create risk.