荒漠化危害预警原理与评价方法

Principles and assessing methods for early warning of desertification damages

以防为主的荒漠化防治策略是荒漠化危害预警的基本出发点 .从区域综合预警的角度 ,按照明确警义、寻找警源、分析警兆、预报警度、排除警患的预警程序 ,阐述了预警思想在荒漠化防治中的应用 ,建立了包括荒漠化地区生态脆弱度、荒漠化发生的危险度评价的荒漠化危害预警模型 .荒漠化危害预警评价是荒漠化危害预警的核心环节 ,它是分析警兆和预报警度的前提 ,直接关系到预警的成败 .生态脆弱度评价模型尤其适用于中小尺度预警评价 .建立普遍适用的荒漠化评价模型还有待于进一步研究 .

Prevention oriented strategy for combating desertification is the basis of the early warning of desertification damages. From the point of view of integrated regional early warning, the application of early warning principles in combating desertification was introduced according to the procedures of clarifying warning meanings, finding warning sources, analyzing warning signs, forecasting warning degrees and eliminating warning troubles. Some early warning models were established for combating desertification damages, including the ecological vulnerability and risk assessment in desertification regions. Risk assessment on desertification is a key issue in the early warning of desertification damages, which is the premise for analyzing warning signs and forecasting warning degrees, and strongly determines the effect of early warning. The ecological vulnerability model is very suitable for small and middle scale early warning,though there are still a lot of work to do in constructing a general model for desertification assessment.