南水北调中线总干渠防洪风险评估方法的研究

Study on flood risk assessment of the main channel in middle route of the water transfer project from south to north

本文以风险理论为基础,提出了先建立二维复合事件风险组合模型,然后再进行两两组合,逐步给出整个引水工程防洪风险的估算方法。并以河北省段为例,对该方法进行了应用,结果表明:南水北调中线工程河北省段的防洪风险大约为30年一遇左右,其输水的安全性是有保证的,这为南水北调中线工程的论证提供了有利的科学依据。

The main channel in the middle route of the Water Transfer Project from South to North (MCSN)will cross over thousands of rivers and be subject to flood.Based on the risk theory,the authors proposed a risk assemble model about 2D joint probability distribution.An assessment method on flood damage risk of the whole MCSN was developed by continuously combining flood risks of each river cross.Taking the main channel of MCSN in Hebei Province as an example,the flood damage risk in the channel was estimated and some existing flood data were used to verify the rationality of the outcome.The results showed the flood damage risk of the whole channel in Hebei Province was about one time in 30 years.Therefore,the channel can be regarded as safe and secure enough in water transfer.