新疆棉花产量构成要素分析

Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Cotton Yield in Xinjiang

本文分析了近 5 0年新疆棉花的种植面积与单产的变化情况 ,以及对新疆棉花产量的相对影响率 ;简要讨论社会因素 (技术中肥料与电力 )和气候因素对棉花单产的影响。分析结果表明 ,近 5 0年来 ,新疆棉花总产中单产的平均作用 (占 45 % )略小于面积的平均作用 (占 5 0 % )。社会经济因素对棉花单产的平均作用为 30 % ,气候因素为 70 % ,但不同时期各因素的相对作用不同。技术进步对单产提高具有明显的促进作用。但 1991年以后 ,化肥和电力的增产作用有所降低 ,即化肥和电力的边际棉花产量逐渐减少。

Located in northwest China, Xinjiang is an arid area, the precipitation here is less but the evaporation is violent. The investment and the dynamics of policy support of the state to Xinjiang are increased along with the regulation of cotton growing distribution in China since the 1990's, and it is put forward that to construct Xinjiang as the main cotton production base in China. This paper analyzes the change of the cotton-growing area and the cotton yield per unit area as well as the social-economic and climatic factors affecting the cotton yield in Xinjiang. The results show that the total cotton yield, cotton yield per unit area and cotton-growing area are increased gradually. They were increased slowly before 1980 but obviously after that time, for example, their average annual increase amplitudes were 2.5×10 3 t, 6 kg/hm 2 and 4.3×10 3 hm 2 during the period from 1949 to 1980, and 7.34×10 4 t, 54 kg/hm 2 and 4.44×10 4 hm 2 respectively during the period from 1980 to 1998. The average contribution of the cotton yield per unit area to the total cotton yield is 46%, which is slightly smaller than that of the cotton-growing area (50%) in Xinjiang since recent 50 years. The climatic factors play much more important role in the increase of the cotton yield per unit area than the social-economic factors, that is the average contributions of the climatic factors and of the social-economic factors are 70% and 30% respectively, they, however, are different from the different periods. Technological advancement promotes obviously the increase of cotton yield per unit area in Xinjiang; however, the effects of chemical fertilizer spread and of power consumption are gradually decreased.