我国产出、货币供给与价格关系实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Output、Monetary Aggregates and Price

针对中国的具体情况 ,建立误差修正模型 ,进行实证分析发现 ,长期内我国产出的变化与物价、货币供给量变化有长期的协整关系。短期内货币是非中性的 ,短期货币供应量增长率对实际产出增长率有积极的作用 ;短期物价增长率对实际产出增长率有抑制作用。模型中还给出了短期向长期转变的参数。

This paper empirically shows that there is long-run cointegration relationship among the growth of output, price and monetary aggregates in China though a ECM model. In short-run fluctuations of monetary aggregates are attributed to real output, and the fluctuations of price are restrained to real output . In this model there also presents the parameters of transition from short run to long run.