人口、消费、技术模式变化对我国海洋渔业生产影响的实证研究——以浙江舟山渔场为例

An Empirical Study of the Effects of the Change in Population, Consumption and T echnology on Marine Fishery and Aquatic Products——A Case Study in Zhoushan Fishery, Zhejiang Province

本文以舟山为例 ,在以往研究的基础上 ,修正了过去所建构的人口、消费、生产和资源的系统模拟分析框架 ,并利用系统动力学的方法 ,选择了投资规模、技术进步等变量进行了系统仿真模拟分析。研究结果表明 ,在渔业资源限定条件下 ,投资规模对渔业生产的影响是有限的 ;而技术进步的影响则是十分显著的 ;同时 。

Taking Zhoushan as an example, this paper revised the system simulation framewor k composed of population, consumption, production and resource. Using system dyn amics, the authors make system simulation by choosing the variables such as the input size and technology progress. The results show that in the context of the fixed fishery resource, the effects of the input size on fishery production are limited, while the effects of technology progress are significant. Meanwhile, th e shortage of labor force will be shown.