暖冬气候对新疆北疆冬小麦的影响

The Impact of Winter Climate Warming on Winter Wheat in North of Xinjiang

以新疆北疆地区塔城、乌苏、车排子三地 (1 981～ 2 0 0 1年 )冬小麦生长发育资料和相应的气象资料为依据 ,分析了北疆地区气候变暖的状况和年型。根据冬季气候变暖对冬小麦越冬死亡率、产量和病虫害的影响 ,并依据大气环流模式 (GCMs)输出结果 ,对北疆地区冬小麦生产潜力进行模拟计算 。

Based on the concerned meteoror logical data during winter wheat growing from 1981 to 2001 obtained from north of Xinjiang Tacheng?Wusu?Chepaizi.Situations and annual types of climate warming on winter wheat including the rate of death in winter?yield?diseases and insect pests.Combined with the output of general atmosphere circulation model.Potential productivity of winter wheat were calculated.And corresponding countermeasures were proposed.