银行业放松管制的理论分析与宏观效果——兼论中国加入WTO对大陆和香港的影响

Banking Deregulation:A Theoretical Analysis and Implications of WTO Accession to the Mainland and Hong Kong

本文建立了一个包含银行、消费者和生产者的三部门一般均衡模型 ,获得了短期均衡和长期均衡条件 ,分析了存贷差扩大和国有银行改革的关系。本文有两个重要理论发现 :一个是发现了用于短期分析的D 曲线和G 曲线。另一个是发现了长期稳定均衡状态对国有银行体制改革和长期经济增长的含意。理论分析表明 ,银行业实行资产负债比例管理与利率的严格控制存在矛盾 ;中国加入WTO后 ,银行业放松管制 ,引入竞争 ,不仅能推动中国大陆的GDP、投资、消费和储蓄的增长 ,而且可以缓解通货紧缩压力 ;但是国有银行的垄断利润将下降。中国加入WTO将给香港的银行部门带来新的发展机会。

Since the beginning of 1990s, the credit balance of the banking system in mainland has experienced a big swing from negative to positive. The balance has continued to expand up to now. It seems that both negative and positive credit balances are so large that the financial resources have been utilized inefficiently by the banking system. On the eve of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), challenges from banking competition will increase. In this paper a three-sector equilibrium model of monopolistic banking competition is set up and is applied to analyze the impact of the expanding credit balance and banking reform on the Chinese economy. Through theoretical analysis, reasons for the expanding credit balance are provided and some possible solutions are given. China's accession to the WTO will present many challenges to the state-owned banks. Foreign banks will be allowed to compete directly with Chinese local banks. We found that competition will not only promote China's GDP, investment, consumption and deposits as well as bring benefits to consumers, but also provide the banking sector from Hong Kong with new opportunities.