摘要
本文提出了一个基于专家知识的场地地震危险度评估方法,它包括潜在震源两级划分的思想和用专家系统来实现B级潜在震源划分等技术途径,以反映地震发生随时间、空间变化的特点。它是地震危险性概率分析方法与专家系统相结合的方法,是对传统概率方法中地震发生时空均匀假设的一种突破。文中还指出了该方法的其它一些特点及其科学意义,并简要报告了该集成系统的研究进展和存在的问题以及今后的打算。
This paper presents an expert knowledge based procedure for seismic hazard evaluation to reflect the variation of seismicity with time and space in accordance with the technique of earthquake prediction. Its main features includ: Two-rank scheme of potential seismic source areas; Delineation of rank 'B' sources with an expert system; Combination of the traditional probabilistic approach to seismic hazard analysis and expert system etc.In addition, a brief progress report of the development of corresponding integrated evaluation system is given.
基金
国家自然科学基金
国家地震局资助项目
