肝炎疫情预报的数学模型与预测

Mathematical model and forecasting for epidemic situation

对肝炎疫情进行未来预测 ,目前所采用的方法误差较大 .而且这种误差随着时间的推移而愈来愈大 .究其根本原因之一就是该系统的时变性与进行预测的数学模型参数非时变性之间存在差异 ,在对系统预测时 ,把一个时变参数的动态过程当作了非时变参数的静态过程 ,用非时变参数模型预测时变参数系统的状态 ,这必然会带来较大的误差 .为了克服上述这些缺点 ,我们给出了动态预测方法 ,其误差小 ,符合率高 ,提高了预测精度 .

This paper deals with some theories and method of epidemic situation forecasting in dynamic system.The method combines time series analysis with mathematical statistics analysis.It gives a way of epidemic situation forecasting and is applied to epidemic situation of hepatitis and so on.We get a striking effect and a high precision in forecasting.Contrasting to traditional method.