1921～2000年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估

Evaluation on Economic Losses Resulted from Land Subsidence in Shanghai:1921～2000

首次从动态性、可计量性、综合性、稳健性和可分性等评估原则出发 ,综合运用终值法、影子工程法、重置成本法、工程费用法、灾情比较法、间接损失与直接损失比例法和权重分解法等评估方法 ,对 192 1～ 2 0 0 0年上海市地面沉降灾害所造成的经济损失进行了科学评估 ,其经济损失高达 2 94 3.0 7亿元 ,平均年损失 36 .8亿元 .

Based on the evaluating principles of dynamic,calculation,comprehensiveness and stability,the economic losses caused by the land subsidence in Shanghai from 1921 to 2000 are evaluated firstly by the authors according to the evaluating methods of furture value method,engineering cost method,shadow engineering method,replacement cost method,disaster comparison method,proportional method of indirect and direct comparison,and weight method,etc.As the result of the evaluation,the total economic losses are about 294.3 billion yuan,averaging annually 3.68 billion yuan.