液体火箭发动机可靠性增长规划研究

The study on reliability-growth plan of liquid rocket engine

液体火箭发动机可靠性要求高、试验费用昂贵 ,有必要对可靠性增长试验进行综合规划 ,以减少试验费用、缩短研制周期和降低风险。根据液体火箭发动机的特点 ,提出双参数的 Bayes可靠性增长模型 ,综合利用产品研制过程中全程试验信息 ,动态评定可靠性水平。在客观评价其可靠性水平的基础上 ,采用 MTGP (ModifiedTracking,Growth and Prediction)模型跟踪增长过程 ,对液体火箭发动机的可靠性增长试验进行综合规划。研究表明 :这种方法能在小样本下 ,科学、合理地评定液体火箭发动机的可靠性水平和指导可靠性增长规划 ,在工程中有广泛的应用前景。

Liquid rocket engine demands high reliability but test expenditure is high.It is necessary to build reliability growth model to plan reliability growth and make decisions for saving test expenditure,shortening development cycle and reducing risk.Two-parameter Bayes reliability growth model was brought forward.This model could utilize whole test information and evaluate its reliability dynamically based on the characteristic of liquid rocket engine.MTGP (Modified Tracking,growth and prediction) model was used for tracking the reliability growth process and planning.The research shows that the method can guide liquid rocket engine reliability growth plan and evaluation under small sample.The method has a broad application foreground.