西北干旱灾害及其气候趋势研究

Research on the Drought Disaster and Climatic Trend in the Northwestern China

利用西北五省1950～2000年降水、温度和农作物旱灾面积资料,用降水的Z指标法,农作物受旱成灾率确定了西北干旱指标和旱灾等级,分析了西北旱灾特征及气候变化趋势。表明西北农业旱灾以70、90年代最严重,而且呈增加趋势,气温在升高,降水在减少。根据预测21世纪前十年西北干旱有所减轻。

Based on the statistical data of precipitation,temperature and agricultural drought area of Northwestern China from 1950 to 2000,the drought index ranks are defined by Z standard and dry damage rate,the agricultural characteristics and climatic trend are analysed. Results show that the drought is increasing and is much more heavy in 1990s and 1970s,air temperature is increasing, precipitation is reducing. The drought will lighten during the first 10 years of the 21st century according to prediction.