不可逆投资理论对中国企业投资行为的解释

The Enlightenment to the Enterprise Investment Behaviors of China with the Irreversible Investment Theory

固定资产投资的不稳定与不确定正日益被投资理论文献所关注。研究表明 ,其可逆性是相当低或者是不可能的 ,不确定性会给投资者施加巨大的影响。本文回顾了不可逆投资理论的有关文献 ,实证检验了中国企业的投资与通货膨胀和利息率之间的关系 ,发现这两种变化的不确定性已经妨碍了投资的增长。在文章的最后得出了适用于中国宏观经济的重要政策建议。

A recent, but rapidly growing, literature has focused on the impact of uncertainty and instability on the adoption of fixed investment projects, showing that if the latter are impossible to reverse, uncertainty can become a powerful investment deterrent. This paper reviews the literatures of the irreversible investment firstly, and presents empirical evidence on the negative association between investment performance and instability measure such as inflation and rate, using a model with the annual investment data set of China secondly. At last, the comparative evidence draw its important implications for China's macroeconomic policy.