达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫预报的数学模型(Ⅷ)

Mathematical models for forecast of epizootic plague of Spermophilus dauricus (Ⅷ)

目的 研究动物鼠疫的前瞻性预报。方法 分别建立1957～2000年吉林省通榆县黄鼠密度、体蚤指数和洞干蚤指数的自回归模型和判别分析模型。结果 对2001～2002年动物鼠疫做出了前瞻性预报。结论 使用自回归模型和判别分析模型,可以进行动物鼠疫的前瞻性预报。

Objective To study on the prospective forecast of animal plague. Methods The autoregressive models and the discriminate models with density of Spermophilus dauricus, it's body flea and burrow track flea index in Tongyu county, Jilin Province, during 1957 ~ 2000, were set up, respectively. Results The forecast of animal plague were given from 2001 to 2002. Conclusion The prospective forecast of animal plague is possible using the autoregressive models and the discriminate model.