近百余年我国气温变化的突变点分析

Analysis on the Abrupt Change Points of Chinese Temperature in the Last 120 Years

用墨西哥帽小波和哈尔小波函数分析了我国气温变化的突变点位置 ,并用气温序列的 5 a滑动平均序列计算了信噪比 (S/ N) ,进一步验证了突变点的位置。同时还通过小波逆变换分析了我国温度变化趋势。结果表明 :从不同气候层次来看 ,192 0年前后气温发生了急剧的变化。目前我国气温处于偏高阶段 ,并将持续一段时间。

By using Mexican-hat wavelet and Haar wavelet transform,the abrupt change points of Chinese temperature in the last 120 years are discussed.The results are examined based on the signal noise ratio calculated from the sequence of 5-year running average temperature.Results show that one of the temperature jump points locates near 1920 and the current variation of Chinese temperature is still in the warm period.