黑龙江省3次产业结构的动态投入产出模型分析

Dynamic input-output model analysis of three industrial structures of Heilongjiang province

以基于变结构控制的动态投入产出模型为基础,利用1993～2000年的统计数据,构造了黑龙江省的动态投入产出模型.利用此模型对黑龙江省3次产业结构未来的变化进行了预测,并对计算结果进行了分析,指出:第1次产业比重的下降有其客观必然性,但要防止第1次产业的大滑坡;第2次产业比重的上升不符合产业结构的发展规律,也不可能长期维持;第3次产业比重的下降不仅会影响产业自身的发展,还会拖累整个经济的发展.

By utilizing the dynamic inputoutput model based on variable structure control and the statistics of 1993～2000 a dynamic inputoutput model was developed for Heilongjiang,and the future changes in industrial structures of Heilongjiang were predicted using this model,and the calculated results were analysed as well.It is pointed out that the first drop in industrial percentage is of necessity,but the first industrial slide must be prevented;the second rise in industrial precentage does not follow the development law of industrial structures,and can not stay long;and the third drop in industrial percentage influences the development of itself and the whole economy.