哈尔滨市南岗区居民肺癌发病死亡10年动态分析

The Incidence and Mortality Trend of Lung Cancer in Recent Dacade Among Residents in Nangang District,Harbin

[目的]分析1992年～2001年哈尔滨市南岗区居民肺癌发病和死亡水平及变化趋势,预测近期发病率和死亡率水平。[方法]资料来源于哈尔滨南岗区恶性肿瘤发病死亡登记报告系统,采用ICD鄄9进行死因分类,利用SPSS软件包分析,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)进行预测。[结果]10年间肺癌发病率和死亡率处于缓慢上升趋势,年平均发病率和死亡率分别为44.75/10万和41.37/10万。肺癌发病和死亡均居恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的第一位,分别占恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率的25.91%和33.29%。20岁～65岁肺癌发病率和死亡率均占肺癌总发病率和死亡率的1/2。预测2006年男性肺癌发病率和死亡率为47.79/10万和44.81/10万,女性将分别达到42.02/10万和45.80/10万。[结论]肺癌发病率和死亡率呈逐渐缓慢升高趋势,是20岁～65岁人群的主要恶性肿瘤之一。

To investigate the incidence and mortality trend of lung cancer from1992to2001among residents of Nangang district,Harbin city,and to predict incidence and mortality trend in the near future years.Data were collected from the annual statistic reports on death cause.The classi-fication of death cause was according to the ICD-9and analyzed by SPSS software package and make use of the gray system GM(1,1)to proceed the prediction.During the past10years,the inci-dence and mortality of lung cancer were placed in up-trend slowly.The average incidence and mortality were44.75per100000and41.37per100000respectively.Both all ranked the first in malignancies.The incidence and mortality of lung cancer accounted for25.91%and33.29%of malignancies respec-tively.One half of the patients with lung cancer was in20～65years old.Predictive lung cancer inci-dence and mortality will be47.79/10 5 and44.81/10 5 for men and42.02/10 5 and45.80/10 5 for women respectively by the year2006.[Conclusion]The incidence and mortality of lung cancer are demonstrat-ed slowly increasing.The lung cancer was the major malignant tumor among20～65years old.