未来中国的油气资源前景探讨

DISCUSSION ON THE FUTURE OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES IN CHINA

据初步统计 ,目前全国石油总资源量达 10 51× 10 8t,探明率 2 0 %左右 ,年产石油 16 0 0 0× 10 4t左右。十多年来石油储、产量呈稳定低幅增长。陆相石油仍居主要地位 ,其勘探开发将向非构造油气藏拓展。煤成油气及低熟油气是新的勘探领域。全国天然气总资源量达 54× 10 1 2 m3 ,仅探明 7% ,年产天然气 2 6 0× 10 8m3 。十年来天然气储、产量增长较快。海相油气是广阔的有巨大潜力的领域 ,全国海相盆地有 50多个 ,总面积超过 330× 10 4km2 。海相天然气总资源量为 38× 10 1 2 m3 ,主要分布在北方古生代古亚洲海区、南方中、古生代扬子海区、近海新生代陆架—陆坡区及青藏中生代特提斯海区。海相成盆、成烃和成藏理论的创新将促进勘探的持续发展。海相勘探“气多油少”的状况 ,有利于改善能源结构。预计 2 0 10— 2 0 15年新疆和近海将建成特大型油气区 ,加上松辽、渤海湾、鄂尔多斯、川—渝、柴达木等 ,全国石油年产量可能逐步达到 180 0 0× 10 4～ 2 0 0 0 0× 10 4t;天然气年产量可能达到 10 0 0× 10 8m3

The total oil resources in China is estimated to be 1 100×10 8t, in which the discovered one accounts for 20%, with a lower reserve production ratio and limitary production increasing potential .The total gas resource in China is 60×10 12 m 3 , in which the discovered one accounts only for 7%, with a higher reserve production ratio and great production increasing potential. 'Stabilizing oil production and increasing gas production'would be a general trend in China's hydrocarbon production in the next ten years. The crude oil in continential deposit is still dominant at present. Exploration will be extended to searching for non structural oil pools .Low matured hydrocarbon and coal derived hydrocarbon are new exploration targets. The hydrocarbon in marine deposit, however, will play more and more important role. The renew of the theory on basin formation, hydrocarbon generation, and pool formation would accelerate the development of oil and gas exploration in marine deposit. Petroleum resource assessment shows that in marine deposit the gas is more than oil, which is favourable to optimization of energy .It is predicted that the Xinjiang and offshore area, except the Songliao and Bohai Gulf basins, would become the China's main oil and gas producing regions in 2010-2015, and that the China's annual production may reach (1.8- 2.0 )×10 8t of oil and 1 000 ×10 8m 3 of natural gas during that period.