关于货币替代的理论与实证分析

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Money Substitution

本文认为 ,货币替代有广义和狭义之分 ,广义的货币替代泛指本外币持有比例的变化 ,而狭义的货币替代则特指将外币充当国内交易媒介的情形。货币替代会对一国宏观经济变量产生重要影响 ,分析这种影响的工具有理论模型、实证模型两类 ,前者如现金预付模型 ,后者如不变弹性生产函数模型。作者运用后一个模型测算了 80年代中期以来美元与人民币之间的替代弹性 ,说明转轨期的中国虽然不存在狭义的货币替代 ,但广义的货币替代已成为植根于经济和金融生活中的重要现象 ,并正在对经济和金融的运行产生着不可忽视的负面影响 ,需要引起注意并采取相应的对策。

Money substitution falls into two categories: substitution in the broad sense and substitution in the narrow sense. The former generally refers to variations in the ratio between domestic and foreign currency holdings, while the latter refers specifically to the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange in domestic transactions. Money substitution has a great influence on variables in the nation's macro economy. The methods available for the analysis of this influence consist of both theoretical and empirical models. Using an empirical model, the authors measured the elasticity of the substitution between US dollars and Renminbi since the mid 1980s. The results indicated that although there has been no money substitution in the narrow sense, substitution in the broad sense has become a conspicuous aspect of national economic and financial life, and is having a significant negative influence on the nation's economic and financial operations. In response, countermeasures should be undertaken.