聚类分析对中国肾综合征出血热疫区分型的探讨

Typing of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome by cluster analysis

目的 用聚类分析探讨中国肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)疫区分型情况。方法 对 1 995～1 999年数据完整的 36个监测点的发病率资料 ,按各年度及计算 5年月平均发病率后分别进行聚类分析。结果 36个HFRS监测点 1 995～ 1 999年资料综合发病率聚成 3类时 ,与 1 980～ 1 992年原分型结果相比 :分型相同的有 2 4个 ,占 66 .7%。在现分型中 ,除了 7个监测点未给出明确的疫区分型外 ,其余 2 9个监测点 1 999年报道分型的结论与 1 999年采用聚类分析进行的疫区分型 ,一致的有 2 3个 ,占 79.3 %。结论 春季和夏季HFRS发病有所增加 ,而秋冬季则相对下降 ;

Objective To make an inquiry into method of typing of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Method Average monthly rates were calculated on the basis of data from 1995 to 1999, then cluster analysis was carried out to type out endemic areas. Results Compared with the results of 36 surveillance spots from 1980 to 1992,twenty four surveillance spots had the same results ( 66.7 %). Twenty three surveillance spots had the same results with the original data in 1999 ( 82.1 %). Conclusion HFRS incidences increased in spring or in summer, but decreased in autumn or in winter. Cluster analysis seemed to be a supplementary method in distinguishing the epidemic types for HFRS.