福建省口岸艾滋病监测阳性率灰色模型预测分析

Apply Gray Model to Forecasting the Positive Detection Rate of AIDS at Fujian Frontier Port

本文运用灰色模型GM(1,1)对福建省国境口岸1991～1996年入出境重点人群204160人次艾滋病血清学监测所得出的年阳性检出率资料进行了统计分析和近期预测:其模型为Y_((1))=124.6161e^((0.1419(-1))-113.0261,对阳性检出率作回顾性验证和近期预测,同时与本资料所建立的曲线方程与最小平方直线方程比较,发现GM(1,1)模型拟合最好,标准误差最小,S=2.767。因此,灰色模型GM(1,1)在卫检工作中值得推广应用。灰色模型GM(1,1)计算结果:预测值与实际值很接近,呈上升趋势。1996年检出率32.45/10万,是1991年检出率的2.8倍。提示福建省入出境人群艾滋病感染的形势严峻,潜伏着暴发流行的危险。对此,要切实加强执法力度与后继管理,筛选最佳的数学模型跟踪预测。

This paper applies Grey Model (GM (1, 1) ) to analysis the positive detection rate of AIDS among key population at Fujian frontier port in 1991 - 1996, the model is Y(t) = 124.6161 e0.1419(t-1) - 113. 0261. The likelihood of this model is better than other curve models, so it has possesses a high value on works of the health and quarantine. The calculating results show . The data of forecast are similar to the data of real measurement, and express the rising trend that the positive detection rate of AIDS in 1996 is 2. 8 times as high as the rate in 1991. The power of enforce the law and management after quarantine must be enhanced so that the potential health risk to AIDS would be reduced.