计算机软件与应用学科热点分析与预测——以双一流高校为对象

Analysis and Prediction of Hot Topics in Computer Software and Application: Taking the Double First-Class Universities as the Object

[目的/意义]以14所计算机科学与技术学科的双一流高校为研究对象,选取人工智能为研究主题,分析其在计算机软件与计算机应用学科中的热点演变。[方法/过程]通过统计双一流高校2000～2017年期间所发表的论文,以每6年为周期进行聚类,分析每周期内人工智能在计算机软件与计算机应用学科的研究热点,并利用指数平滑方法对未来研究热点进行预测。[结果/结论]发现:人工智能作为研究主题,在计算机软件与应用学科中的研究热点在不断演变,2000～2005年间研究热点为计算机工具类,2006～2011年间研究热点为计算机应用类,2012～2017年间研究热点为数据挖掘技术类;通过关键词重叠法分析发现数据挖掘为整个周期的研究主线,其在未来6年内仍保持一定的研究热度。

[Purpose/Significance]The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the evolution of artificial intelligence in the field of computer software and computer application,taking the Double First-Classuniversities in computer science and technology disciplines as the research object.[Method/Process]By gathering the papers published in 2000 to 2017,the papers are then divided into one period every 6 years to cluster and analyze the hot spots of artificial intelligence in computer software and computer applications in each cycle,and use exponential smoothing to predict the future research hot spots.[Result/Conclusion]It is found that the research hot spots of artificial intelligence in computer software and application disciplines are constantly changing.The focus of research was computer tools in the period of 2000 to 2005,and the focus of research was computer applications from 2006 to 2011,while from 2012 to 2017,the focus of research was data mining technology.We find that data mining is the main research hot spots of the whole cycle through the keywords overlap analysis methods,and it is still a hot spots in the next 6 years.