南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送和山东夏季降水量奇异值分解分析

THE SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS BETWEEN MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA-WEST PACIFIC AND SUMMER RAINFALL IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

利用奇异值分解 (SVD)方法和山东省 2 6个代表站 195 1～ 2 0 0 0年 6～ 8月降水量、NCEP/NCAR再分析195 8～ 1998年 1～ 12月 92 5～ 30 0hPa 5层月平均比湿和风场资料 ,分析了山东夏季降水与前期 (冬季、春季 )及同期 (夏季 )南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送之间相关场的分布型 ,从中找出了遥相关的“关键区” ,并对找到的“关键区”的可靠性进行了验证。研究表明 ,山东夏季降水与前期 (冬季、春季 )和同期 (夏季 )南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送相关较好 ,春季的相关程度最高 ,冬季次之 ,夏季最小。

The distribution patterns of correlation between the summer rainfall in Shandong Province (SRSD) and moisture flux over the South China Sea-West Pacific (MFSP) in the preceding winter, spring and simultaneous summer are analyzed by using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The 'key regions' are found and the reliability of these regions is proven. It is indicated that there are close relationship between the SRSD and the MFSP in the preceding winter, spring and simultaneous summer, and the highest correlation exists between the SRSD and the MFSP in spring, the higher in winter and the lowest in summer. There is apparent negative correlation between the summer rainfall in the south, southeast and peninsula of Shandong Province and the latitudinal MFSP and the longitudinal moisture flux over the south of Japan in the preceding winter. There is apparent negative correlation between the summer rainfall in mostly parts of Shandong Province and the latitudinal moisture flux over the east regions of Taiwan and tropical West Pacific, and there is apparent positive correlation between the summer rainfall in mostly part of Shandong Province and the longitudinal moisture flux over the West Pacific and China Continent-Japan in preceding spring. There is apparent positive correlation between the summer rainfall in the northwest,southwest and peninsula of Shandong Province and the moisture flux over the China Continent-Japan in summer.