摘要
采用灰色系统理论与方法 ,建立山西省东亚飞蝗的灰色动态预测模型 ,并通过残差周期分析提高了模型的精度 ,对未来 10年山西省东亚飞蝗的发生情况做出预测 ,为其防治提供可靠的科学依据。图 2 ,表 7,参 7。
In this paper, models of grey dynamical prediction on Locusta migratoria manilensis(Meyen.)in Shanxi province were established, prediction results showed that the outbreak period of locusts was approximately 6 to 7 years. Around the year of 2004 or 2005, a very serious locusts plague would take place in Yuncheng, Shanxi in accordance with the opinions of the paper.
出处
《农业系统科学与综合研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期161-163,共3页
System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金 ( 3 0 170 612 )
山西大学校基金"灰色系统在重要农业害虫测报中的应用"
关键词
东亚飞蝗
灰色预测
GM(1
1)模型
残差周期
Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen.)
grey prediction
GM(1,1)model
periodical residual
