基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数平均组合预测模型研究

Research on Generalized Weighted Functional Mean Combining Forecasting Model of Air Material Consumption Based on Grey System and Neural Network

建立了航材消耗的灰色系统预测模型与神经网络预测模型 ,同时给出了一种新的具有广泛代表性的组合预测模型——广义加权函数平均组合预测模型及其加权系数的参数估计方法 ,并利用此方法建立了基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数平均组合预测模型 ,最后以实例说明了其预测效果 .

For the air material consumption has the seasonal and fluctuating characteristic, its grey system forecasting model and neural network forecasting model are proposed in this paper. Simultaneously, a new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional mean is presented and the parameter estimation methods of its weighting coefficients are given. This model has extensive representation. In final, a generalized weighted functional mean combining forecasting model of air material consumption based on grey system and neural network is proposed and its efficiency is demonstrated by an example.