渤海湾客货滚装运量预测和系统优化

Prediction and System Optimization of Passanger—Cargo Ro—Ro Transportation at the Bohai Bay

本文首先从理论上对滚装运输的客货量进行定量分析研究。作者应用多准则腹地划分方法和重力模型估算货运量,此时考虑了由于运输时间缩短而产生的诱发运量;而对客运量则采用灰色模型预测。在预测未来的客货运量之后,从系统工程的观点出发,以船、港(泊位)、货平均年度费用(AAC_综)的最小值为目标函数,应用混合整数优化模型优化出合理的船型、班期和泊位。同时,将传统的客货船也作为一种船型方案,以便客滚船与客贷船的经济性比较。最后,以渤海湾地区的大连—烟台、大连—天津和烟台—天津等3条航线为例进行了计算。

The paper carries out a quantitative analysis on the passanger—cargo capacity of the ro—ro transportation. Multi—principle hinterland dividing method and gravity model are used in the estimation of cargo capacity where the induced transportation capacity caused by the reduced transportation period was taken into consideration. Whereas a grey model is used in the prediction of passanger transportation. After the prediction, taking the lowest value of ship cargo and port (berth) expenses per year (AAC)as target function the mixed integral optimizing model is applied to derive the most reasonable shiptype, line and berth from the view point of system engineering. At the same time. traditional passanger-eargo ship is also taken as one of the schemes in the comparison of the economy between passenger/ro—ro ship and passenger/cargo ship, Finally, calculations are carried out with the Dalian/ Yantai, Dalian/Tianjin and Yantai/Tianjin course as examples.