模糊类比分析法在渔业数值预报中的应用研究

Application of the Fuzzy Analogy Method to Numerical Forecast in Fishery

渔业数值预报除涉及水文、气象、饵料生物量、资源幼体等的资源环境因子外 ,还要考虑经济、社会等因素。本文在分析 1987～ 1993年历史资料的基础上 ,利用资料之间的类比性 ,提出渔情预报的模糊类比分析方法 ,将预报年份与历史记录之间的多指标综合类比排序 ,得出预报值。在东海北部鲐渔情预报中发现 ,与直接估算法比较 ,该方法具有所需资料少、预报迅速合理的优点 ,而且随着历史资料的扩充 ,自身能够不断学习更新。

To conduct numerical forecast in fishery,besides environmental factors including bydrological and meteorological factors, and the quantities of bait resources and juvenile resources, one has alse to take into consideration social and economical factors. A fuzzy analogy method for the forecast of fluctuations in catch is presented on the basis of analysis of the data from 1987 to 1993, using analogical reasoning. Forecasted values are obtained by making a comprehensive analogy between the indexes of the year to be forecasted and those of the historical records and by sequencing the influential factors thus selected according to the degree of their influence. The method was used to forecast the annual yields of Pneumatophorus japonicus and Decapterus maruadsi in Zhejiang Province with satisfactory relative errors. Compared with the direct method, this new method has advantages in that it needs fewer data and produces better results more rapidly, and is capable of improving itself with the extension of historical data.