奥运对北京市第三产业直接影响研究

An Exploratory Study of the Direct Influence for Olympic Economic System on Peking's Tertiary Industry

本文选取20世纪60年代以来,奥运会举办国和地区的资料作为样本,针对奥运经济的不同特点,对相关数据和资料进行了整理、分析和挖掘。主模型采用投入产出—系统动力学经济模型(IOSDM),在对模型有关参数进行适当修正的基础上,对奥运经济对北京市第三产业的直接影响做了分析与预测,为有关部门制定长远经济发展规划和决策提供科学依据。

This paper analyses the Olympic data and documents of holding countries and regions which be used as the sample since the 1960s. Aim at the Olympics economy of characteristics, we uses three single classifiersdiscriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural network to the training samples. The inoutput of system dynamics model (IOSDM) which revised the relevant parameters is adopted in the main economic model .The conclusion of analysis and prognosticate presented the direct influence to Peking's tertiary industry will be provide the science basis for the government decisionmaking.