基于最小二乘估计原理的飞机流量预测

Air Traffic Flow Forecast Based on Least Square Estimate

流量预测是空域评估管理系统的重要组成部分,目前流量的预测方法主要有回归分析和时间序列方法。应用系统辨识理论介绍了最小二乘格式模型在空中交通流量预测中的应用,以全国为例,根据所建立的模型对飞机的年流量进行了预测,并与回归分析方法做比较,说明了该方法的有效性。

Air traffic flow forecast is playing an important role in Airspace Management Eval-uation System.Today the main methods of air traffic flow forecast are regression analysis and time series analysis method.Based on system identification theory,this paper introduces the application of a model in least squares format in the air traffic flow forecast,and fore caste the air traffic flow of the whole country.As compared with regression analysis method,the re-sult showed the effectiveness of the model.