福建省2002年传染病疫情态势分析

Analysis on the Tendency of Infectious Diseases in 2002 in Fujian, China

[目的 ]了解福建省甲、乙类传染病疫情态势。 [方法 ]利用EDA、比数图表、CMR和对应分析等技术 ,分析我省报告疫情和其他监测资料。 [结果 ]我省 2 0 0 2年总发病率为 194 14 / 10万 ,估计实际发病率为 3 88 14 / 10万至 5 96 0 3/ 10万。报告发病率与前 5年平均水平比较上升 12 5 %。疫情特点 :因子负荷图显示 ,城市以血源及性传播传染病为中心 ,农村以肠道传染病为主 ,并有趋向于血源及性传播传染病 ;年龄组发病率有 2 5～ 3 4岁与 65～ 79岁两个高峰 ,分别以肝炎、肺结核为主 ;乙肝呈U型曲线上升 ,服从二次曲线方程发展趋势 ( y =0 63 63x2 5 2 97x +3 6 90 4,R2 =0 95 66) ;10岁以内儿童发病率与 90年代初相比下降明显 ;计免 4病发病率年递减趋势服从指数曲线方程 (y =14 0 82e 0 1817x,R2 =0 90 69) ,但时有暴发点。EDA技术展示报告总发病率在第 10 %位以下的地区主要分布在沿海。 [结论 ]目前福建省传染病疫情依然严峻 ,必须针对疫情特点确定防治策略 ,一些地区疫情报告工作有待加强。

Objective To explore the incidence of Class A and B infectious diseases in Fujian. WTFZMethods The notifiable infectious diseases and other surveillance data were analyzed by exploratory data analysis (EDA) and capture mark recapture (CMR) and so on.WTFZ Results The incidence was 194.14/10 5 and the estimate rate 388.14/10 5-596.03/10 5. Compared with the mean rate in 1997-2001, the incidence in 2002 increased by 12.5%. According to factor loading plot, blood and sexually transmitted diseases (BSTD) were the main diseases in urban, and intestinal diseases in rural area and tending to BSTD. There were two incidence peaks in aged 25-34 and 65-79, caused by hepatitis and tuberculosis respectively. The incidence curve of hepatitis B appeared to be U-type and was fitted with quadratic curve significantly WTBX(y=0.6363x 2-5.297x+36.904,R 2=0.9566). The incidence under 10 years old decreased more significantly than it in 1990's. The incidence curve of EPI 4 target diseases was decreased gradually and was fitted with exponential model significantly WTBX(y=140.82 e -0.1817 x,R 2=0.9069). The areas under P 10 (percentile) with EDA method were located in coast areas. Conclusion The epidemic situation in Fujian is still very serious. New strategies and strengthened surveillance system must be established in the future.