水资源系统中的不确定性及风险分析方法

Uncertainties in Water Resources System and Risk Analysis Method

水资源系统中广泛存在着不确定性 ,其对系统的影响很大 ,甚至带来灾害性风险 (如洪水、干旱 ) ,是风险产生的根本原因 ,也是水资源系统研究遇到的难点问题之一。从分析总结水资源系统中存在的不确定性因素的类型(包括随机性、模糊性、灰色性及未确知性 )及研究方法 ,提出水资源不确定性系统的概念。从不确定性因素的数学处理方法入手 ,介绍基于概率统计学 (处理随机性 )的风险计算模型 ,提出基于模糊隶属度 (处理模糊性 )、基于灰数(处理灰性 )和基于未确知数 (处理未确知性 )的风险计算模型。为水资源系统风险规划与管理奠定基础。

One of the key problems in water resources system research today is how to quantify uncertainty, which is inherent in every water resources system. Uncertainties are the origin of risk in hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the types of uncertainties in water resources system are comprehensively concluded, such as random, fuzzy, grey and unascertainty, and the concept of uncertain system of water resources is puts forward. From the points of mathematical proceeding of uncertainty factors, the risk analysis model based on probability theory (related to the field of random) is introduced, and new risk analysis models based on fuzzy subordinative degree (related to the field of fuzzy), grey number (related to the field of grey) and unascertained mathematics (related to the field of unascertainty) are put forward. It lay a foundation for risk planning and management of water resources.