集装箱港口吞吐量线性回归模型

Linear regression model of China's container port throughput

讨论了我国集装箱港口吞吐量与我国国民生产总值、对外贸易额、港口固定资产投资及利率之间的关系.其相关性研究是基于线性回归模型的建立,搜集、整理了过去16年各观测值,用SPSS软件计算得出的.结果说明,集装箱港口吞吐量与对外贸易额、港口固定资产投资正相关,与国民生产总值、利率负相关,和国际上流行的集装箱港口吞吐量发展理论相悖.这一发现对我国集装箱港口建设提供了理论决策依据.

This paper explores China container port throughput correlated to the economic factors such as the GDP, foreign trade volume, fixed assets investment, interest rate and the exchange rate. The correlation analysis is conducted by the means of the doublelog linear regression model with the help of the SPSS software based on the past 16 years data accumulated from the indexes. The research shows that China's container port throughput has a positive correlation with foreign trade volume and port fixed assets investment, negative correlation with GDP and interest rate. The result contradicts the international prevailing theory which is widely held among the port authorities. 