未来我国高级船员供求关系分析与预测

Analysis and prediction on the relationship between supply and demand of marine officers in the future in China

对我国高级船员的培养、供给及使用现状进行了分析,采用二次指数平滑法和半对数模型分别对我国未来10年商船队的发展和船员劳务输出数量进行了预测,进一步计算出未来10年所需的高级船员数,得出结论,我国高级船员的需求量将不断增加.

With the exponent smooth model and halflogarithm model, this paper analizes the education, supply and employ of marine officers in China, predicts the development of merchant fleet and the demand for the export of marine officer services in the next ten years, and concludes that the demand of marine officers keeps increasing.