我国彩电产业三阶段结构演化的博奕模型

Research of the Three-stage Game Model of China's Color TV Industry

通过对我国彩电产业结构成长过程中有效竞争、过量扩张和技术升级三阶段的模型化研究 ,得出 :1在生产能力有限的早期发展阶段 ,各厂商的短期价格竞争是有效的 ,厂商具有兼并扩张动机 ;2过度扩张带来的产能过剩导致产业进入微利或亏损的恶性竞争状态 ;3技术升级使领先企业获取高额利润 ,且转产成本越低 ,高端市场价格弹性越低 ,获利越多 ,而跟随厂商则境况更差。

This paper constructed the three stage game model such as effect competition model, excessive expansion model and technological development model of China's color TV industry. This research concludes that every incumbent firm has merger motive in the first stage, excessive productivity led to the loss of the whole industry in the second stage, and technological development increased the leading firm's profit, which waved with transforation cost and the price elasticity in the new market, and decreased those of the following firms on the contrary.