菲利普斯曲线与中国经济分析

The Phillips Curve and an Analysis of China's Economy

本文在介绍凯恩斯理论重要政策工具菲利普斯曲线的基础上,运用菲利普斯曲线对中国经济近期内的"三种可能"进行了分析,指出中国经济将在周期性的波动中求得发展,中国政府已经使用并继续交替地使用紧缩政策和扩张政策,以保障中国经济持续、稳定地发展。中国经济只要能保持GDP年均增长7%的中速发展,就能在2020年实现GDP再翻两番的宏伟目标。

In October 1998, China ended its six-year's tig ht financial policy and began its flexible financial policy. Using the Phillips Cu rve in the Keynesian theory, the authors analyze 'three possibilities' of China 's economy in recent years and point out that China's economy will develop with a regular fluctuation. To ensure a steady and sustainable economic development, China has been using both tight and flexible financial policies. If China can ma intain its GDP's annual increase at a rate of 7%, it will realize its ambitious goal of redoubling its GDP in 2020.