进出口与中国国民经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship in Imports Exports and National Economic Growth in China

通过对1978年至2000年中国进口、出口和国民经济的有关数据进行的数理统计分析并运用统计软件Eviews3.1,进行了线性回归、单根检验、协整分析和Granger因果关系实证研究.结果显示,中国的进口增长、出口增长与国民经济增长三者之间不但存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,而且进口增长与国民经济增长之间互为促进、互为因果,但是出口增长仅能在短期内单向对国民经济增长起到促进作用.

By analyzing the correlative data about imports, exports and national economy in china from 1978 to 2000, this paper investigates the relationship of imports, exports and national economic growth in China. Though using the statistical software Eviews3.1, on the basis of analyses of linear regression, test for unit root, cointegration analysis and Granger-causality so on, this paper provides some conclusions, including the long-run dynamic equilibrium relationship in the imports, exports and national economic growth in China, a two-way causal relationship between imports growth and national economic growth, and exports growth enabling the national economic growth in the short-run time so on. Meanwhile, this paper tries to analyze and explain the conclusions on the basis of the current economic situation in China.