企业信用评价模型、信用等级与业绩相关性研究

Study on Corporate Credit Evaluation Model and the Relation between Credit Ratings and Performance

本文试图从管理心理学角度入手,将信用评价置入激励理论框架中进行新的思考。运用实证研究的方法,揭示企业业绩、信用等级和经营者还贷激励三者之间的相关关系。研究结果表明,信用等级转移,企业业绩指标具有先导性;基于现金流的业绩指标更能提示企业的违约风险,并且与经营者业绩更相关。

This paper studies the credit evaluation by using the incentive theory from the perspective of managing psychology.The relation among corporate performance, credit rating and redemption incentive to the management is also studied by using empirical analysis. The result of the investigation reveals the following characteristics: the index of corporate performance can predict the transference of corporate credit rating; meanwhile,the index of corporate performance based on cash flow can predict default risk much better and has closer relationship with performance of management than that based on accrual data.